When I was a kid, my mother would occasionally say to me “What’s the big idea?”. I knew then I had done something stupid or reckless - and I should be worried. Now I ask: "America, what’s the big idea?"
Some thinkers believe that the good old U S of A is in trouble because of the dearth of “big ideas”. The Economist had a cover story with Rodin’s Thinker sitting on a toilet, captioned: “Will we ever invent anything this useful again?”
The premise is that transformational breakthroughs are in our past. The advances that characterized the industrial age have not happened in the modern era. The internal combustion engine, the airplane, electrical power, the telephone/telegraph, refrigeration all dramatically changed millions of lives. Nowadays, innovation in America is “... somewhere between dire straits and dead” according to PayPal founder Peter Thiel. Some economists have pegged this era as the “Great Stagnation”. Innovation has become incremental rather than transformational.
Yes, we have better cars, better airplanes, better TVs, better computers, better buildings, better appliances, reusable rockets .. better most things than 50 or a 100 years ago - but functionally they have not changed all that much. We still ship goods mainly by cargo ship, rail and truck. We still sit on the couch and watch the “tube”, albeit a flat-screen incarnation and streamed content. We still drive our cars at roughly the same speed as 1950. We still cook and prepare food much as grandmother did.
The promises and predictions of the SciFi writers have not been realized. Where is my flying car, my "beam me up" transporter, my bionic body and especially the Star Trek Enterprise? Instead I get Segway, holograms, Siri, e-cigarettes, veggie burgers, virtual reality video games, and worst of all, narcissistic and personal attacks on social media with 280 characters of text - really? It is true, we have created the internet, transformational for the world, but its impact is a mixed bag.
America's reputation as the world’s leading innovator is built upon the vibrant research and development capabilities of our great universities, often funded by government grants. But our universities are in trouble. The pandemic has increased isolation, government funded research is reduced and lower student numbers all contribute. The number of talented people from around the world studying here on student visas is dropping. Our immigration policies are sending the message that says we don't want you. Our melting pot has a cover on it. Students with foreign citizenship currently comprise the majority of our science-based graduate programs. And most, when their study is complete, want to remain in the US to further their research, work for American companies or create their own businesses.
Where are the American grad students? Well, they are there, just not in great numbers in STEM related research. They are in commerce, finance and business schools, hedge funds and crypto-currency. The American obsession with wealth is leading the best minds to “follow the money”. (Note - this is opinion, my own.) Couple that with the epidemic of science denial, the disparagement and dismissal of science and education in general, and you have a prescription for losing the technology race to China.
So, have we run out of ideas? Is America on the downslope?
I chose a hopeful view. In 1800, Thomas Malthus predicted that everyone in the world would starve. It would be just impossible to produce enough food. World population is now 7x that of Malthus’ time, and while hunger is still certainly a global problem, most people eat better than 200 years ago. And, hey, we survived the Mayan end-of-the-world prophecy and asteroid flybys, so perhaps there is hope.
Where do we look for breakthrough advances that might dramatically improve the lives of people?
> Medical research. Perhaps the most hopeful of fields, as shown by the rapid Covid vaccine developments, CRISPR & gene therapies, DNA sequencing, non-invasive neurosurgery using sound waves, smart pacemakers, the application of Artificial Intelligence to medical diagnosis and image processing ... can a cancer cure be far behind?
> Space Exploration. The amazing landing of the Mars Rover after a 40 million mile ride and landing perfectly on a football field size target with Mars spinning at 800 mph is perhaps a sign that we are still capable of great endeavors. Space initiatives have historically led to breakthroughs both intentional and serendipitous. But when the government tries support innovation ... well, you know... politics.
> Computer Technology. Virtual reality, Quantum computing, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence ..
Caveat. Artificial Intelligence offers both great potential for good in many areas, but like many technologies, its application can be perverted. We must be watchful. The military industrial complex is looking hard at AI. Imagine autonomous weapons, waves of smart drones. AI is not human and will not exhibit human empathy.
> Climate Change. I suggest it is time for the US to quit being spectators and drive worldwide cooperation attacking climate change. Follow the lessons of Pascal’s Wager - believe and do something about it rather than just debate it. The time for that is long over. Climate change is real and if we continue to ignore it, I shudder to think. This is not a problem that can be handled by last minute quick fixes. By now the US should have been leading the world, mobilizing another "Manhattan Project-like" effort. But instead the fossil fuel interests and their servants in Congress delay, filling the air with disinformation. Trillions for war but lemonade stands for climate, a crisis that will affect all our children and grandchildren’s quality of life and perhaps put their lives at risk. Does it take melting Greenland and Antartica to deliver the message? What is wrong with us?
If you have made it to here, you have my thanks for reading and allowing me to vent. I’ve just had it with science deniers.
Copyright © 2021 Dave Hoplin
