Baloney Detector

Somewhere along the line, we have become muddle-headed. We seem to passively accept most anything as true and rarely seem able to reject the arguments even in the face of overwhelming evidence.  To use technical jargon, this is bassackwards. We should expect claims to be supported by facts and evidence. We seem to have surrendered our baloney (my father would have used an earthier term) detection apparatus to the gospel of the internet. It's not simply gullibility. It's a world view that rejects any authority except ourselves. We have witnessed on live TV how widespread conspiracy acceptance can become a national security issue and a threat to our democracy. 

There have been conspiracy theories and hoaxes throughout history.  Virtually every assassination or mysterious death (Lincoln, Kennedy, Martin Luther King, Epstein, 9/11, death of Nero, Mozart, Elvis ...) generates a conspiracy cult. In the 1820's, when polar exploration was "heating up",  John Symnes promulgated a "hollow earth" theory that drew a sizable following claiming that the earth was hollow and had openings at each pole and hid away entire civilizations. The Denver Airport covers an underground city that serves as the headquarters to the new world order. The moon landing was staged in Hollywood.  A tracking chip in a vaccine. Orson Welles terrified the country with his War of the Worlds radio broadcast. Alien crop circles. Paul is dead. The 60 volume Hitler Diaries, an adept forgery of Hitler's handwriting, was proven to be fake shortly before publication in Der Stern. 

The list could go on and on. These examples are really just curious blips on the radar with adherents recognized as being well outside the mainstream. Today we have a much different world.  Even the craziest notions can go viral in a matter of hours, with people mindlessly sharing across the globe. 

How can we reactivate our baloney detectors? Here are some thoughts.

Information vs. disinformation can be tricky to parse. Best practice is never share or repeat anything unless you can verify from a trusted source. Be skeptical. If something sounds too good to be true or too crazy to be true, your instincts are probably correct. If you're still wondering, use fact checking sites like Snopes or FactCheck.org or Google Fact Check Tools  ... 

Check your emotions before you respond. Take a few deep breaths and assess the consequences - the risk reward of a response. Knee jerk reactions have destroyed many a career, friendship, life.

If what you are reading/hearing is a personal attack on someone and not addressing an issue, it is an appeal to your emotions. See above.

Beware of declarations of authority without any other substance. This is an attempt to gain your trust and support without providing good reason. "I have a secret plan to end the war".  See "be skeptical" above.

Beware of the slippery slope argument, one that warns of one thing and threatens dire consequences, which if examined rationally have no basis in reality. "If you allow background checks, the next step will be confiscation". These arguments push you to believe what you want to believe, not reality. We all have the inclination to paint the world as we want to see it, not as it really is.

Beware of an application of "statistics", cherry-picking data to support questionable conclusions. "There were only 1500 deaths today, we're in the clear."  Mark Twain once said: "Lies, damned lies and statistics." Numbers can be used to falsely imply rigor in an argument and frequently tell half-truths. "Fully half of Americans have below average intelligence" is not a slander.

Fractured logic.

A non-sequitur is a conclusion that does not logically follow the premise. God is on our side, we have nothing to fear.  The German army's motto was Gott mit uns.  These declarations are attempts to give you assurance that your views are unassailable. The world is not that simple. 

Irrational conclusions. "The Vikings have never won a Super Bowl because they traded Fran Tarkenton." The "Curse of the Bambino'". Use of the word "must". "I must get into Harvard or my family will disown me". Musts are rarely must.

Either/Or declarations.  "We cannot feed undernourished children and fund pre-school programs". This is a good example of when to apply the Socratic Method.  Ask Why. And then ask Why again of the response. At some point in the chain of whys you reach a point where the statement is justified or obviously false.

Deception, euphemism, weasel words and propaganda. Talleyrand said "An important art of politicians is to find new names for things that have become odious to the public."The "Cute Puppy Act", regardless of its content, can be weaponized against opponents. "What? You oppose cute puppies!". Operation Just Cause. Patriot Act. Enhanced interrogation. un-American. Ethnic cleansing. Laid off ...

Half truths. Quotes out of context. Cherry picking evidence or statements.  Sound bites. Spin doctors. Just be aware of when you might be being manipulated.

Hopefully, your baloney detector will cause you to think critically about claims being made, but its true value is to evaluate whether the things you might say/write fall into the baloney category.

Be careful out there.

Copyright ©  2021  Dave Hoplin