Friday, May 29, 2026

Index of Self-Destructive Acts

The Index of Self-Destructive Acts is the title of a novel by Christopher Beha. But the phrase originates with Bill James, the renowned baseball statistician. The index measures a pitcher's self-sabotage: walks + balks + hit batters + wild pitches + errors, events entirely in the pitcher's control quantifying how often the pitcher beats himself. E-1 in your scorebook.

The book features faceoffs between a baseball traditionalist and the book's protagonist - “a quant” i.e. quantitative analyst for whom data is king. H. James Harrington sums it up for the quant. "If you can't measure something, you can't understand it. If you can't understand it, you can't control it. If you can't control it, you can't improve it. The only sensible man I know is my tailor; he takes my measurements anew each time he sees me."

Is there such a thing as a “clutch hitter”? The number cruncher says no. Players do not perform better in some situations than others. The traditionalist says but, but, ..  I have so many examples. The traditionalist swoons over a great fielding play. The quant says, nice catch but the data says he’s a below average fielder. And so it goes. The game is being taken over by a raft of new statistics, turning managers into robots. RSOR, runs saved over replacement? WAR, wins above replacement? BABIP, Batting average on balls in play?  What the heck, a stat that throws out the 18+ strikeouts and the dozen walks per game? These are the things destroying the game. If you want data, measure the attendance figures. I predict that in the not too distant future, some team, probably Oakland, will turn over the managerial role to AI. 

For the quant the game is all about stats. No claim is valid without supporting data, which should dictate game decisions. So we have the demise of the sacrifice bunt and the hit-and-run, the steal of home. A complete game? Don't be silly. And a preponderance of the strikeout producing upper cut swings. For the traditionalist the joy of baseball is the grace and beauty of the game, a great catch to rob an extra base hit, a great throw from deep short to nail the runner by a half step, the pleasure of watching a hitter run out a triple. But, instead, what we get are a constant stream of batters strolling back to the dugout or fans looking up into the stands. I mourn.

In case it's not clear, I fall in the traditionalist category.  But, nevertheless, I can recite baseball statistics with the best of them. I even own a Bill James’ book.  As a kid I memorized the backs of my baseball cards so my statistical prowess dates mainly to the 50’s. So stats are fine. They document baseball’s storied history. Except for WAR* - how do you calculate that?  But ..who won the World Series in 1924? Who was the last .400 hitter? What was the greatest team in history?  Now you're talkin'. 

But this baseball chatter is just prologue, because I find it interesting. The fact is the "index of self-destructive acts" is an apt assessment of the human condition. It can be applied to most any human activity. We all commit them and at a distressing rate. This is actually the focus of the Beha book. Baseball is just a smoke screen. The book details a litany of avoidable personal failures and the large and small catastrophes that result for every character in the book.

So, we could apply a destructive acts index to grade ourselves a la the demerit system of West Point, where demerits are accumulated for offenses like tardiness, unshined brass, sloppily made beds, marching out of step, cheating or getting a tattoo. When the demerit threshold is breached, punishment is administered. e,g, marching solo in full dress uniform on the parade grounds on a weekend under the hot sun or freezing cold for hours, lowering class rank - or expulsion. 

So search your memories for your self-destructive acts and create an index of your unforced errors coupled with your highlight reel kindnesses. If the E1's outnumber the base hits, you might want to take some corrective action. Just remember that it takes 10 atta-boys to offset 1 "oh sh-t". 


*For the record, here's how WAR is calculated. 

WAR = (Batting Runs + Base Running runs +/- Runs from GIDP + Fielding Runs + Positional Adjustment Runs + Replacement Level Runs) / (Runs per win)

Clear?

Copyright © 2026  Dave Hoplin


Tuesday, May 12, 2026

Critters


Our home borders a wooded area. Critters tend to stop daily to sample hosta and birdseed in our backyard. Over the course of a year we regularly see: deer, wild turkey, coyote, raccoon, fox, opossum, rabbit, squirrel, an occasional stray cat and a couple years ago, a pair of fisher. Eagles flying over and recently one sitting in our yard, Cooper hawk, Pileated woodpecker, Downy woodpecker, Red-bellied woodpecker, Barred Owl, Oriole, Cardinal, Grosbeak, Hummingbird, Robin, Blue Jay, Bluebird, Indigo Bunting (2 days and gone), Mourning Dove, Gold Finch, House Finch, Junco, Wren, Flicker, Phoebe, Blackbird, Crow, Chickadee, Nuthatch, Sparrow, Nesting Mallards ...

Our new addition to critter watching is a smart bird feeder, equipped with a motion detection camera and WiFi service that transmits notifications. The best feature is a squirrel ejector. AI in the camera distinguishes between bird and "animal guests" and triggers a siren to eject the guest. Promising, and it worked for awhile but unfortunately, it either deafened our squirrel population or they've figured out the siren is just an annoyance. I'm waiting for the big raccoon in the neighborhood to discover this feeder. Not sure a measly siren will deter him.






Lonely tulip and masticated hosta


Wise guy



A visitor from Baltimore


Redd Foxx


Bird feeder vandals


Showoff


Wile E Coyote, but no sign of Road Runner 


Limpy of the broken leg

Wabbit, the hosta ravager


Roamy, the stray in search of a handout


Cooper Hawk, the bane of songbirds

Pileated & Red Bellied



Eagle & Hummingbird


Grosbeak & Turkey


Bluebird & Oriole



The trick is to plant enough for yourself AND the critters

Cheap entertainment for the old folks. 

Copyright © 2026  Dave Hoplin



Monday, May 4, 2026

Deep Thoughts May '26

For what it’s worth - and keep this in mind - this blog is free.

"What a man needs is someone to love, something to do that he loves and if possible a daughter". Tom Bodett

You can’t change the past. You can’t know the future. Make the now the best you can. 


Attacking AOC because she worked as a bartender is laughable. Here is someone in Congress who actually worked for wages in a real job. We could use a few more non-millionaires in that body.



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I like the new Minnesota state flag. It is simple but subtle, the blues of sky and water, an abstract outline of the state and the signature North Star. It is unmistakably Minnesota. I am dismayed that there are those who would attempt to use it for yet another wedge issue to divide us into hate camps.


Orban'd joins Bork'd in the political lexicon. I can suggest a few here in the US who should be Orban’d. 


Of the alleged scientific papers that dispute the consensus about climate change, the percentage funded by the fossil fuel industry is within epsilon of 100.


$1.5 trillion for DOD? How about an audit first?


The cost of war is always supplemental.


"Poetry can make you remember what you didn’t know you knew".  Robert Frost


A special forces soldier, a member of the Venezuela operation, has been charged with using classified information and betting on that Maduro excursion to make $400K on Polymarket. Good start but small potatoes compared to the insider traders on tariffs, oil, Iran, Hormuz. How about prosecuting those mega criminals?


Minnesota Star headline: "Suspicion of insider-trading is growing".  Duh.


Grandparenting has to be the greatest gig ever invented.


I judge the quality of a choir by how many times they bring tears to my eyes.


The Stanley Cup has to be the hardest trophy in sports to win. High compete level, entertaining & impressive skills on display night after night. Must win four grueling 7 game series.


Impressive is an interesting word. “I was impressed” is a compliment - unless you are a sailor.


The Australian Strategic Policy Institute reports that China now leads the United States in research on 66 of 74 frontier technologies, including artificial intelligence, superconductors, quantum computing and optical communications.


"We're not covering up anything, we just not revealing everything".   Pam Bondi


Prices rise quickly and drop rarely.


New Jersey Transit is charging $150 for a round-trip train ticket to MetLife Stadium for FIFA World Cup spectators.


"Never play cards with a man called Doc. Never eat at a place called Mom’s".  Nelson Algren


Whatever happened to whistling? It used to be common among cheerful people.


Each day I read the Star’s obit columns for anyone my age. It's taking ever longer to get through.


Some of the world's greatest fiction can be found in newspaper obit columns.


Can someone explain why people spend 3 nights watching/obsessing over the NFL draft when you can get the draft picks in 2 minutes from the web? I don’t get it.


I possess an abundance of patience but I tend to hold it in reserve.


I fear the cynicism and lust for power inherent in the gerrymandering wars is causing irreparable damage. Politicians choosing their voters rather than vice versa spells disaster for democracy.


Americans are treating war like a video game. Have we lost our humanity?


Trump’s aides keep him happy with daily video montages of “stuff blowing up”.


The dumbification of America. More than 30% of Americans under 50 believe in astrology. 


""There’s many a best-seller that could have been prevented by a good teacher.  Flannery O'Connor


I would think being a member of a firing squad would be traumatizing.


Remember the "Gold Card" program - buy your USA residency for $1M? The Commerce Department reports exactly 1 approval to date.


When you excel at something you make one friend and ten enemies. Unknown


Our home borders a wooded area. Critters tend to stop daily to sample hosta and birdseed in our backyard. A single tulip survived these critters this spring. Grateful for small blessings.


I hope someone left you a May Basket.


One of my favorite stats is the Gini coefficient. Zero means everyone has the same amount, 1 means one person owns everything. When France hit .83 in 1789, they started cutting people’s heads off. We’re at .85.   Scott Galloway


Half of the people DHS claimed to have detained in MN, those featured on the worst of the worst website, were already in state custody.


"You have to be fond of men. Very, very fond. You have to be very fond of them to love them. Otherwise they’re simply unbearable".  Marguerite Duras


The NCAA men's (and women's) final four games were more like a street fight than basketball.  First team to 60 wins.


Anyone who categorically rejects books must be deeply flawed.


The Library of Congress has 650 miles of shelves, and 150 million items, including more than 35 million books.


I read on average 75 books a year. So many books, so little time.


During our testing, we found that Mythos Preview is capable of identifying and then exploiting zero-day vulnerabilities in every major operating system and every major web browser when directed by a user to do so.   Anthropic AI


He picked a fight with the Pope.


“Want to stop a data center in your community and impose common-sense controls on AI? Well, that’s a non-starter because the Trump family has invested in data centers and in AI firms. Want to regulate crypto and stop its use as a vehicle for crime? Well, um, no, because the Trump family has amassed billions from their crypto holdings. Want to rein in the pernicious effects of prediction markets. I don’t think so, because the Trump family invests in Polymarket. Want to shift America towards safe, clean renewable energy? Think again, because petrostate oligarchs have poured $500 million into Trump’s World Liberty coin.” Paul Krugman


Quick. Renew your passport before it gets faced.


Back to the 50's? Nostalgia for things that never were.


The Supreme Court is complicit in the destruction of the rule of law, granting immunity to crimes by a president, undermining Civil Rights and endorsing the right to order the DOJ to violate the constitution.


Of the 20 horses in this year's Kentucky Derby, 19 were related to Secretariat.


"A first principle is that you must not fool yourself - and you are the easiest person to fool". Richard Feynman


Binomials.  Autocracy and corruption. Crypto and crime. Fish and chips.


Haagen Dazs has a new Dubai style chocolate mini ice cream bar. Delicious. Just the right diet size. Unless of course you eat 4 at a time.


Major street work happening outside our front windows. Bulldozers, backhoes, fiber optic boring equipment, water main replacement. What could go wrong?


When the power goes out, rescue the ice cream from melt.


At 50, everyone has the face they deserve.  George Orwell


And at 75 it’s a roadmap of a life traveled.


We have more private security guards in this country than high school teachers.


Shocking. I was ignorant of this, thinking TB was a conquered disease. But ...tuberculosis (TB) kills an estimated 1.23 to 1.3 million people annually - more people die of TB than die of malaria, typhoid, and war combined… "a cure—why we didn’t find it until the 1950s, and why in the decades since discovering the cure, we’ve allowed over 150,000,000 humans to die of tuberculosis". The vast majority of deaths occur in developing regions, maybe the "why" is in that fact.  Read Everything is Tuberculosis by John Green


Of all the many cuts to social programs, I believe gutting USAID is the most cruel and callous. Since the cuts there have been 600,000+ preventable deaths (and counting), mainly children. 


A couple hours on the bicycle soothes the soul and strengthens the heart. Grateful I can still do it, albeit at a considerably slower rate and fewer miles covered than a few years back.


And then a trove of e-bikes go by at 25 mph. Kind of destroys the mood.


Metal plates in the body are an unwelcome, uncomfortable, necessary intruder.


Be patient. Often nothing is better than something.


Baseball was present at creation. Read Genesis .. In the Big Inning ..



Copyright © 2026  Dave Hoplin