A Hot War

I lived the first 40 odd years of my life under the specter of "mutually assured destruction".  It was called the Cold War and began shortly after the end of WWII. USA vs USSR and the key element in the faceoff was not over a hockey puck, it was nuclear weapons.  Russia developed the bomb in 1947 and thus began decades of the "Red Scare". Each country kept adding to their arsenal to assure that a first strike by one nation could be countered by the other and "mutual destruction" would result. In the 50's, home construction often included a "bomb shelter" stocked with water and canned goods. Schools routinely conducted "duck and cover" drills where students would crouch under their desks with their hands protecting their heads. 

There was even a "Doomsday Clock" produced by US atomic scientists that measured the time remaining on a 24 hour scale to the end of the world. In 1953, at the end of the Stalinist regime, it measured 2 minutes to midnight.  In 1991, after Gorbachev's "glasnost" and "peristroika", USSR's openness movement and the fall of the Berlin Wall, the clock retreated to 17 minutes to midnight.  

Today the clock stands again at 2 minutes to midnight. https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/current-time/   The reason is not (only) nuclear threat but the existential threat of climate change. We are in a "Hot War" and the enemy is Climate Change. And the "mutually assured destruction" is no longer mutual. (Author note: I am not going to argue with you whether Climate Change is real or not. That has been established. "Scientific evidence for warming of the climate system is unequivocal.") - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change


I listened to the news coming from the G20 Summit in Osaka this week with trepidation. 

".. the communique eventually agreed at the conclusion of the two-day gathering in Osaka repeated earlier commitments by 19 of the G20 members to the “irreversibility” of the Paris accord and its full implementation."  The Independent 6/28/19  [Author note: The only G20 nation not to sign is the USA]

The communique on Climate Change received the support of 19 of the 20 nations for the Paris Accord. This accord creates a framework for a global response to climate change with the goal of "keeping a global temperature rise this century well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels".  2 degrees, so what? Read about the consequences of just a 1/2 degree rise. 
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/10/07/climate/ipcc-report-half-degree.html

President Trump told reporters during a press conference Saturday morning that he is not ignoring the threat of the climate crisis, but he doesn't want to take action to confront the emergency because such a move would threaten corporate profits. ... "So we have the best numbers that we've ever had recently," Trump said. "I'm not looking to put our companies out of business."

Donald Trump has again dismissed the need to tackle climate change by saying the US has the cleanest air and water “ever”. [The Independent].   [Author note:  EPA standards for clean air/water do not correspond to climate change, and furthermore, the EPA has been gutted under the Trump Administration]

The US president dismisses a government climate report and says that other countries need to clean up more than the US does.  [BBC] [Author note: This is a global problem and requires a coordinated global response. It is not a contest.]

During WWII the US recognized that a race with Germany to develop an atomic bomb had to be won and in response to this crisis, initiated a massive engineering project to do it - The Manhattan Project.  This Climate Change crisis demands no less.

A United Nations study reaffirms the seriousness of this crisis.  It is not a "problem", it is a crisis. The time to act before the effects are irreversible is short. 

"Just over a decade is all that remains to stop irreversible damage from climate change, world leaders heard today as the General Assembly opened a high‑level meeting on the relationship between the phenomenon and sustainable development." 

[United Nations June 2019 https://www.un.org/press/en/2019/ga12131.doc.htm] ]

The consequences of "doing nothing" do not bear thinking about.

A NASA Report https://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/

• Global Temperature Change.  
• Warming Oceans
• Shrinking Ice Sheet
• Glacial Retreat
• Decreased Snow Cover
• Rising Sea Levels
• Arctic Sea Ice
• Extreme Events

Hence, headlines:

1. Chennai, India, a city of 9 million, is running out of water, a harbinger of the future for the Indian sub-continent. If monsoon rains fail to appear (again), the city will be uninhabitable. The only backup plan is to leave the city.  Together with rising sea levels, we can expect a future climate change refugee problem dwarfing the current war refugee exodus. (Star Tribune 29June2019 edition)
2. France hits record 115°F. (Star Tribune 29June2019 edition) Of course weather is not the same as climate. But the unprecedented arctic melt is affecting the jet stream, distorting it into a "wavy" form that is the cause of both massive heat waves and brutal cold waves. https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/strange-wavy-jet-stream-blasting-europe-heat-scientists-say-could-ncna1024826
3. Global sea level rose about 8 inches in the last century. The rate in the last two decades, however, is nearly double that of the last century and is accelerating slightly every year. About 40% of world's population live within 60 miles of a coast,  mainly in large cities, generally at the mouth of a large river. It is estimated that in this century, up to 2 billion people will become climate change refugees, having to abandon their coastal homes. (Science Daily)
4. Tornadoes have been popping up every day in the U.S. as if coming off an assembly line. They’re part of an explosion of extreme weather events, including record flooding, record cold and record heat ... [Washington Post]  Since Jan 2018 there have been 16 separate billion dollar weather and climate disasters. [NOAA https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/events]  from hurricanes , wildfires, tornadoes, floods and even a Colorado hail storm.  In 1980 - 3. 1981 - 2. 1982 - 5.  1983 - 3. 1984 - 2.  1985 - 5 ...
5. ... and there are many, many more

Don't take my word for it. 
Pope Francis warned that “history will judge” a lack of action on climate change and urged doubters to talk to scientists who study the issue.  

Frankly, I'm not optimistic that the crisis will be addressed before it is too late. Over 70% of Americans accept that the climate change is "man-made", but few would pay as much as $10/month to address it. I fear that by the time consensus is reached the clock will have run out.  

https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2019/01/do-most-americans-believe-climate-change-polls-say-yes/580957/   

Unfortunately, unless everyone cooperates, you can do little individually to impact climate.  Reduce your carbon footprint, reduce your energy use, eat less meat, ride your bicycle to work, ...  But in the end it boils down to political will. You can urge your favorite politician to support action.  For me, this is the issue that will determine how I vote in 2020.

Who will be the sufferers?  Likely, not you dear reader, unless you are living in Miami,  but ...

Your children and grandchildren are watching.

Copyright © 2019 Dave Hoplin

See also my post: 6th Extinction)