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In the 1990's famed paleontologist and conservationist, Richard Leakey, warned that the earth was entering its "6th Extinction". To be classified a Mass Extinction - with a capital E - 75% or more of the earth's species must become extinct. Through fossil studies, scientists have identified 5 previous such events in earth's history. Although the term "mass extinction" seems to imply a suddenness, some cataclysmic event, in reality, these events take thousands of years, a long time to you and I but a blink of an eye in the lifetime of a planet. The 1st extinction, about 400 million years ago, has been attributed to the ice age and subsequent sudden melt, eliminating most every living thing except sea sponges and fungi. The four other extinctions are attributed to volcanic activity with the latest enhanced by earth's collision with an object from space. That one did in the dinosaurs. (reference: #1 Discover July 2018 article)
Many scientists now agree with Leakey's assessment. But .. this time we are doing it to ourselves. Human activity: population growth, resource consumption & climate change spurred by fossil fuel burning are the agents and this time our species may be in jeopardy. Of course, it is not uncommon for individual species to go extinct. These are tracked and are known as the "background rate". The current pace of extinction is 100 times the normal background rate.
Because climate change a slow process in human life span terms, it is easy to ignore it or ascribe it to a some anomaly. And your life, dear reader, will probably not be dramatically impacted. Yes, you will see hotter summers, colder winters, more ferocious storms, longer droughts, worse floods, wilder wild fires; hurricanes with the force of a Harvey or Katrina will be the norm. But these things happen somewhere else, so, eh.
But ... how about your grandchildren and great-grandchildren?
Start with coastal cities. The ocean is warming. That is a fact. And because of that Antarctica is melting - from below. If the Antarctic western shelf would melt, it is estimated that ocean levels would rise 10 feet or more. If Antarctic melted entirely, sea levels would rise 200 feet. Far fetched? The temperature was hovering around 90°F degrees at the Arctic Circle in this summer. Antarctica hit 63°F last year. (reference: #5 Guardian article)
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About 40% of world's population live within 60 miles of a coast, mainly in large cities, generally at the mouth of a large river. It is estimated that in this century, up to 2 billion people will become climate change refugees, having to abandon their coastal homes. An unignorable refugee crisis. (reference: #4 Science Daily article)
2060: Your grandchildren are approaching your current age. A billion people are on the move, fleeing rising sea levels. 2100: Your great-grandchildren are approaching your current age. Another billion people have become climate change refugees.
I am distressed and angry with our administration for unilaterally acting in denial of climate change and its danger to the planet. The EPA has blasphemed its middle name. Climate change is the most important issue the world faces today. It is existential. Of course, climate change deniers may be right - it's a cycle. But I don't think so. There is too much empirical evidence. Do we simply write-off overwhelming scientific evidence as irrelevant? The consequences of being wrong does not bear thought.
".. researchers reported in the journal Science. A sweeping survey of global fossil and temperature records from the last 20,000 years suggests that Earth’s terrestrial ecosystems are at risk of another, even faster transformation unless aggressive action is taken against climate" (reference: #7 Star Tribune article)
But I have hope. While the federal government obstructs, states and localities are acting. Despite the federal incentives, the push for coal has no legs, not for environmental reasons but economic. Alternative energy sources have crossed the tipping point and are a cheaper option than coal. Coal's days are numbered.
Individuals will act out of kindness and compassion and concern for others. Enterprises act for profit or public image. Governments react. So I am counting on individual actions and good old entrepreneurial greed to turn the tide. There are fortunes to be made addressing climate change and it would not surprise me to see a new industrial revolution emerging from this crisis. But there is not a lot of time.
What I truly dread is the cry of my grandchildren and their children echoing across the ether: "Why didn't you do something?"
Do something.
Start here: Citizens Climate Change Lobby
1. "Mass Extinctions" Discover Magazine July/August 2018
2. Antarctica ice loss tripled... Washington Post June 2018
3. Miami's Other Water Problem Bloomberg August 2018
4. Climate Change Refugees Science Daily June 2017
5. Underwater melting of antarctic far greater ... Guardian April 2018
6. If the West Antarctic Ice Sheet Melts Discover Magazine June 2017
7. Climate Change May Render Earth's Ecosystems Unrecognizable Star Tribune August 2018
... and you can find thousands of others
Copyright © 2018 Dave Hoplin
It’s the callous disregard for our descendants I find hard to understand. I thought part of being human was caring about people and our planet beyond our lifetimes.
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