Tuesday, October 20, 2020

COVID-19

Covid-19 is not the same as influenza. We are now (20Oct2020) at 40 million cases and over 1 million deaths worldwide from this pandemic and cases are spiking as we enter the fall "flu" season. The death rate from Covid is about 3%.  Influenza death rate is about .1%.  They are not the same.  We have flu vaccines. We do not have a Covid vaccine. What ticks me off are the frequent comments like "it's only old people dying" - which targets me by the way - and is also false. It's as if the right to life has an expiration date.  Yes, the vast majority of those dying are over 65, however if you're young "you have nothing to fear" is wrong, especially because you may potentially infect your parents and grandparents or other vulnerable "old people". And your death risk is higher that the flu.  If you have any empathy for your fellow man, you will do everything you can to prevent yourself from passing along this virus.  In short, wear a mask, wash your hands, keep to social distancing.

Remember, many cases are asymptomatic. You don't really know if you are a carrier.  Carriers can infect others. Yes, your risk of infection varies by zip code but everyone is vulnerable. The disease is highly infectious. Densely populated urban areas are riskier but on the other hand, take a look at North Dakota numbers.

And, regardless of your age, you really don't want to get this disease.  Not because it might kill you, although it might, but because of what long-term effects it might have on you. 

It is pretty easy to accept that those that surviving a hospital stay for Covid are likely to sustain lung or heart damage. An elephant on your chest. I can't get enough air. I feel like I'm 100. A respirator keeping you alive.

The virus attacks blood vessels and the associated organ is at risk of long term damage. In addition to lung damage, liver damage, brain damage, myocarditis (inflammation of the heart muscle) is the most common "leftover" from Covid.  It is triggered by the over-aggressive immune response to the disease. It can produce arrhythmia (irregular heart rhythms), AFib symptoms,  and reduce the ability of the heart to pump. These symptoms can occur weeks or months after recovery from Covid.  A German study showed that 78% of recovered patients had indications of myocarditis.  Only half of those resolve without a chronic condition. Another study found CV19 in the heart muscle of 7% patients whose death was attributed to lung failure.  We are likely to see an increase death rate due to heart failure in the future.

Finally, "herd immunity", the latest proposed solution to Covid.  Herd immunity is the concept that if enough people contract the virus, there will not be enough uninfected to transmit to and the virus will become harmless. This first of all assumes you will have immunity once you have contracted the virus. Perhaps.  In the US, to have effective herd immunity, roughly 200 million people would need to get the disease. The current US death rate is about 3%, but be optimistic, assume that as the herd gets sick the death rate falls to 1% - purely hypothetical by the way.  Do the math 200,000,000 x .01 = 2,000,000.  Mass murder.


Copyright © 2020 Dave Hoplin

Read more

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/covid-19-can-wreck-your-heart-even-if-you-havent-had-any-symptoms/

https://ourworldindata.org/mortality-risk-covid

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