Bear On The Loose

The first time I remember the fear of nuclear annihilation was October 1962. I was just a kid and had no true understanding what nuclear war might mean. But I could feel the angst of the adults in the room. This was the Cuban Missile Crisis, 13 tense October days when President John F Kennedy and Premier Nikita Khrushchev played a game of chicken with millions of lives at risk. There was no 24 hour news cycle so the updates came from the 15 minute Huntley-Brinkley report at 5:45 each evening and the Minneapolis Tribune in the morning and the Minneapolis Star in the afternoon. But the full frightening story of this near run thing was not revealed at the time. 

Emboldened by the Bay of Pigs debacle, a failed US attempt to overthrow Fidel Castro, and a young inexperienced President Kennedy licking his wounds, Russia had surreptitiously moved short and medium range missiles to Cuba, capable of delivering nuclear warheads to many major U.S. cities. A U2 overflight revealed images showing the installations were nearing readiness. In a dramatic UN General Assembly speech, US representative Adlai Stevenson revealed the photos and delivered a scathing condemnation of the Russians. 

But the Russian convoy carrying the the material necessary to complete the sites continued to steam across the Atlantic. The U.S. Navy set up a blockade of Cuba and an “incident” seemed inevitable. But the Russians blinked and the convoy reversed course. The Cuban missiles were disassembled and returned to Russia. And a little known fact. Both sides blinked in unison. The missiles the US had recently placed in Turkey were also removed and US agreed not to invade Cuba. Diplomacy over bombs.

Then ensued 25 years of Cold War between Russia and NATO, with “mutually assured destruction” the fear factor keeping the world from the brink.

The Cold War ended in 1987 with Reagan's Hollywood scene, “Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall.” The end came not with a bang but with a bankrupt nation. Russia’s spending to keep up the arms race with the US led to an economic disaster for that country. We essentially spent them to death.

Once again we face the specter of an irrational world leader rattling his nuclear saber, the Russian Bear run amok. Putin, the KGB colonel, who desperately yearns to restore the USSR to its 1962 state, where Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, East Germany, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, Yugoslavia, Albania and of course Ukraine were all puppet states of the Soviet Union. Putin believes his destiny is to turn back the clock. However, his targets have no desire to return to repressive Soviet rule. 

Putin laid waste to Chechnyia and Georgia and annexed Crimea. And in 2019, the US pulled out of Syria, essentially ceding it to Russia. Perhaps seeing little resistance to these crimes, and believing NATO was fragile, fraught with disagreements to the point where an American president threatened to withdraw from an alliance that has served as a bulwark since 1947. Putin likely expected a cakewalk through Ukraine. But NATO countries and non-NATO nations alike have uniformly condemned the Russian invasion. NATO has once again become a united front with several more European nations considering joining.  A UN resolution condemning Russia was approved 141-4. The four: Russian Federation, North Korea, Syria, Eritrea, all led by despots. (China abstaining) You are known by the friends you hold. And while Putin flaunts nuclear threats, NATO responds with Rule 5 - attack one, attack all.

I wish the talking heads on the 24/7 news coverage, particularly the retired generals with their overblown macho bravura, seemingly so eager to risk WWIII from their comfortable consultant chairs, would cool it. They don't have to live with the consequences of their recommendations. Eisenhower once said, "plans for war are essential, but no plan survives the first engagement with the enemy". Once you unleash the dogs of war, events take over. And if this war bursts the boundaries of Ukraine, we may well have the first - and last - nuclear war.

And some few members of Congress and the media with their praise for Putin will find themselves on the wrong side of history. When Fox broadcasts are shown on Russian TV and a U.S. congressman calls Zelensky a thug and evil, something is haywire. The Russian Bear has walked into the cage that is Ukraine. We need to tone down the rhetoric, keep that cage door open and let diplomats and pressure from his own people convince Putin to exit before the unthinkable happens. 

As in 1987 I believe the key factor to accomplish this is economically, not militarily. The Russian people of course are being fed disinformation upon disinformation and outside news sources have been cutoff. But the economic impact cannot be hidden and it is impossible to keep the war and the thousands of Russian casualties secret for long. Kyiv may end up in the hands of the Russians, but these indomitable Ukrainians will not be defeated.

Pray for peace and cool heads.

Copyright ©  2022  Dave Hoplin