Answers in the Back

Socrates is credited with the maxim "an unexamined life is not worth living", supposedly uttered during his trial for impiety and corrupting youth and for which he was sentenced to death. So .. maybe that's not the model to follow. 

Viktor Frankl's remarkable "Man's Search for Meaning" is an account of his time in a Nazi concentration camp, his amazing survival story and where he developed his philosophy for a meaningful life. It's all about attitude.  Worth a read. 

In contrast, my life, although not without challenge, grief and disappointment, has been much blessed. Happily boring, as the novelist says, "a happy life, the kind that doesn't make for an interesting story." 

An examined life is as rare as common sense, checked by “self-help” gurus. Let someone else prescribe for you. The self-help market is forecasted to be $14 billion by 2025, although I’m inclined to believe $13.9B is quatsch. So, insecure American, that makes your share about $50/year.

Rest assured, I am not heading off to Kathmandu or contemplating biking cross-country or writing the Great American Novel. I am constrained by the possible. However, ... what follows, dogmatic as it sounds, I accept that there are no answers in the back. Charlie is right. Nevertheless, here’s my 50 bucks worth of Ann Landers-ish boring Variety Section back page insight. 

Gratis. No obligation. 

➢ Be optimistic. It is a constant struggle and an oft repeated mantra in my brain. It does not come naturally to me. But cynicism yields a grouch. And no one loves a grouch. There is much about the world that works against being optimistic. Evil exists. Cruelty exists. Civil society isn't. But for a healthier me, I chose optimism and faith in the human spirit (usually) even when events all too often argue against it. Perhaps optimism is an act of courage.

➢ Avoid a quest for prestige. I am well over the need of the approval of others. So this is not a hard one for me but ..  the "cocaine of self-importance" is exactly that - addictive and destructive. Maya Angelou advised: "when people tell you who they are, believe them. However, when people try to tell you who you are, don't believe them." Never let yourself be defined by others. What is said about you reveals more about the sayer than sayee. Try this: Don't think less of yourself, think of yourself less.

➢ How much is enough? Take it from me, the accumulation of stuff presents a problem as you age.  So .. be generous - with resources, time and words. It's good for you, actually better for you than the receiver of your largesse. Offer praise freely and sincerely. However, giving praise requires paying attention. Give time. Find a cause that is dear to you and volunteer. These things cost nothing and the pay is fantastic.

➢ Stick to it. Don't expect instant gratification. "Like" counts do not determine your self worth. In this age of social media instant feedback obsession, the temerity to "hang in there", tenacity to achieve a goal is the first characteristic of success. Remember the old saw - success is 10% inspiration, 90% perspiration. Almost any worthwhile achievement takes time and perseverance. 

➢ Don't be afraid to change your mind. This, I know, is a tough one. Most opinions are based on superficial "facts" or co-opted from others. True, honest conviction takes open mindedness, time, study and thought. And remember, "I don't know" is perfectly acceptable.

➢ Don't fear the quiet. I tend to be a somewhat solitary person so this is not a huge challenge for me. The real challenge is overuse. Reserve time for solitude and don't shy from the spiritual, whether in a church pew, a long solitary walk or a bike ride to nowhere particular. 

➢ Engage with people. This may seem contradictory along side the above, but both are healthy behaviors. COVID has made this more difficult and society has been damaged beyond the 1 million American funerals. Make the effort to retain & maintain relationships.

➢ Keep moving. It is tempting to become a spectator and slip into a sedentary life as you age. Get off your duff, not just for your physical well-being, but for your mental health as well. The best medicine for depression is exercise. Keep it wigglin' as an 80 year young biker lady once told me.

➢ Stay awake. As in awareness of the small beauties & pleasures that surround us. Savor - a friend's laugh, a walk in the woods, a poem or a song that makes your eyes water, shared memories, a flower garden, an anonymous act of kindness, lefse, a sunrise, a bible verse, a thunderstorm, an old photograph, a good novel, a creek running, a grandchild’s hug, .. the list goes on.

➢ Choose “work” that brings you joy. If you are retired (or when you retire), remember - retirement means “beyond work”, not dead or worthless. You are free to redefine the word “work”. It does not need to be income producing or adhere to a schedule.  Do not forswear your ability to positively impact the lives of others. 

 

Come, my friends, 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world. Tennyson

Copyright ©  2022  Dave Hoplin

March Madness

I’m not sure what game is being played or if it actually is a game, but it ain’t basketball. Mosh pit? Street fight? Rugby scrum? Gladiator games? How is it a basketball move when a 7', 300 pound man drives a shoulder into the defender’s chest hard enough to knock him back 3 steps, Sumo wrestler style, to free up space for a shot? And if you hit him hard enough to knock him on his butt, more than likely he’ll get a “flop” warning. Poor Chet Holmgren. I fear for his skinny body. Or barrel down the lane full speed headlong into 3 defenders to an almost always automatic shooting foul call? 

I’m just amazed there aren’t broken ribs in every game. Flak jackets should be part of standard issue basketball uniforms. 

I remember a playing in a high school B-Squad game and being called for a foul because I had my hand touching the kid I was guarding. I said, “What?”.  And the ref gave me a break, not calling a technical, instead saying, “You know you can’t do that, son”.  Really? 

These days the name of the game is “physicality” and contact close to the basket draws an automatic foul, while mauling each other while rebounding mostly goes uncalled. Rules around offensive fouls require the defensive player to remain in a fixed position and get obliterated by the driving offensive player to get a charging call. And if you twitch or the offensive player manages to create a glancing blow, well, it’s a foul on you. At the end of the game a gentle nudge is a foul because the team that's behind wants to stop the clock. The last 2 minutes of any close game is a slow motion agony of timeouts, whistles, foul shooting and desperation shots. And when is the last time you saw “traveling” called? 1,2,3, 4th step, dunk. Or carrying the ball? It used to be automatic when the dribbling hand got on the side or under the ball.

Playmaking? Only occasionally, unless you consider the high ball screen pick and roll or the weave playmaking. The game has become one-on-one (or more often 1 on 3), the big guy backing down his defender for a 2’ baby hook. Or a quick guard beating his man around a screen at the top of the key for a layup or dump off for a dunk. Or 50 times a game, launch a 3-ball. The 3 point shot has become the homerun of basketball with similar damage to the game. The saving grace is a couple shining moments of incredible athleticism in every game. But, give me the Princeton back door cuts or “Pistol Pete” passing any day. That’s entertainment. College ball now echos the NBA. NBA has ruined amateur basketball. 

It is certainly an incredibly difficult task to officiate a NCAA tournament game, these days nigh impossible. And I'll bet you did not know, "according to 2019 statistics, basketball causes the most injuries compared to any other team sport." It's time to introduce some rule changes to reduce the risk of injury - and improve the game. The NFL has done this to some degree. You almost never see a clothesline tackle or chop block or helmet first tackling. 

March Madness is of course enormou$ly popular ($3 billion in wagers! How’s your bracket doing, BTW?) and it is a bit addictive, but if you want to watch basketball as it should be played, watch the NCAA women. 

Yes, I am a curmudgeon. You're not the first to have that thought.

Copyright ©  2022  Dave Hoplin

 

Bear On The Loose

The first time I remember the fear of nuclear annihilation was October 1962. I was just a kid and had no true understanding what nuclear war might mean. But I could feel the angst of the adults in the room. This was the Cuban Missile Crisis, 13 tense October days when President John F Kennedy and Premier Nikita Khrushchev played a game of chicken with millions of lives at risk. There was no 24 hour news cycle so the updates came from the 15 minute Huntley-Brinkley report at 5:45 each evening and the Minneapolis Tribune in the morning and the Minneapolis Star in the afternoon. But the full frightening story of this near run thing was not revealed at the time. 

Emboldened by the Bay of Pigs debacle, a failed US attempt to overthrow Fidel Castro, and a young inexperienced President Kennedy licking his wounds, Russia had surreptitiously moved short and medium range missiles to Cuba, capable of delivering nuclear warheads to many major U.S. cities. A U2 overflight revealed images showing the installations were nearing readiness. In a dramatic UN General Assembly speech, US representative Adlai Stevenson revealed the photos and delivered a scathing condemnation of the Russians. 

But the Russian convoy carrying the the material necessary to complete the sites continued to steam across the Atlantic. The U.S. Navy set up a blockade of Cuba and an “incident” seemed inevitable. But the Russians blinked and the convoy reversed course. The Cuban missiles were disassembled and returned to Russia. And a little known fact. Both sides blinked in unison. The missiles the US had recently placed in Turkey were also removed and US agreed not to invade Cuba. Diplomacy over bombs.

Then ensued 25 years of Cold War between Russia and NATO, with “mutually assured destruction” the fear factor keeping the world from the brink.

The Cold War ended in 1987 with Reagan's Hollywood scene, “Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall.” The end came not with a bang but with a bankrupt nation. Russia’s spending to keep up the arms race with the US led to an economic disaster for that country. We essentially spent them to death.

Once again we face the specter of an irrational world leader rattling his nuclear saber, the Russian Bear run amok. Putin, the KGB colonel, who desperately yearns to restore the USSR to its 1962 state, where Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, East Germany, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, Yugoslavia, Albania and of course Ukraine were all puppet states of the Soviet Union. Putin believes his destiny is to turn back the clock. However, his targets have no desire to return to repressive Soviet rule. 

Putin laid waste to Chechnyia and Georgia and annexed Crimea. And in 2019, the US pulled out of Syria, essentially ceding it to Russia. Perhaps seeing little resistance to these crimes, and believing NATO was fragile, fraught with disagreements to the point where an American president threatened to withdraw from an alliance that has served as a bulwark since 1947. Putin likely expected a cakewalk through Ukraine. But NATO countries and non-NATO nations alike have uniformly condemned the Russian invasion. NATO has once again become a united front with several more European nations considering joining.  A UN resolution condemning Russia was approved 141-4. The four: Russian Federation, North Korea, Syria, Eritrea, all led by despots. (China abstaining) You are known by the friends you hold. And while Putin flaunts nuclear threats, NATO responds with Rule 5 - attack one, attack all.

I wish the talking heads on the 24/7 news coverage, particularly the retired generals with their overblown macho bravura, seemingly so eager to risk WWIII from their comfortable consultant chairs, would cool it. They don't have to live with the consequences of their recommendations. Eisenhower once said, "plans for war are essential, but no plan survives the first engagement with the enemy". Once you unleash the dogs of war, events take over. And if this war bursts the boundaries of Ukraine, we may well have the first - and last - nuclear war.

And some few members of Congress and the media with their praise for Putin will find themselves on the wrong side of history. When Fox broadcasts are shown on Russian TV and a U.S. congressman calls Zelensky a thug and evil, something is haywire. The Russian Bear has walked into the cage that is Ukraine. We need to tone down the rhetoric, keep that cage door open and let diplomats and pressure from his own people convince Putin to exit before the unthinkable happens. 

As in 1987 I believe the key factor to accomplish this is economically, not militarily. The Russian people of course are being fed disinformation upon disinformation and outside news sources have been cutoff. But the economic impact cannot be hidden and it is impossible to keep the war and the thousands of Russian casualties secret for long. Kyiv may end up in the hands of the Russians, but these indomitable Ukrainians will not be defeated.

Pray for peace and cool heads.

Copyright ©  2022  Dave Hoplin

A Tale of Two Startups

My life of work was not that storied, but I'm going to tell you about it anyway. 

After a stint at teaching, I worked in software development for over thirty years. Fifteen for corporate behemoths Control Data & Honeywell, a story for another day, and another 20+ with 2 software startup companies, one an intense 2 year ride into oblivion, the other a roller coaster ride to success.  

It is almost a certainty that startups will pull people into unhealthy lifestyles, akin to bipolar disorder. High highs, low lows, elation with successes, agony with failures. My sample size is just 2 instances but they cover both ends of the spectrum. Both had a common pattern - 60 hour weeks with frequent voluntary overtime; jelly donuts on demand, fast food dripping on a keyboard and lots of coffee; waking in the middle of the night to update the to-do list. I was that stereotype - a bit crazed - the bug-eyed, drooling middle-linebacker look. Too much stress, too little sleep, too much caffeine. It makes me cringe looking back. But I did it - twice.  

Of course, this cannot go on indefinitely. You would wind up prematurely dead. So if the startup is lucky enough to release a product, things tend to normalize. However, in the software business, there is never really a "normal".  There's always the Sword of the Next Release dangling by a thread over your head.

And the facts are - it is rare for a startup to feel the joy of victory. "In 2019, the failure rate of startups was around 90%. Research concludes 21.5% of startups fail in the first year, 30% in the second, 50% in the fifth and 70% in their tenth."  Let's see - 171.5% fails. Grim odds. 

Why did one fail and the other succeed?

Top notch people are the key to a successful new venture. But good people are not enough. Both of my experiences had terrific people, highly skilled software professionals, great people with great character, but one crashed and the other soared.

Case Study #1

Early 90’s. 

Every startup needs a strong vision. Something inspiring AND able to attract investment. Most startup failures simply run out of cash.

Startup #1 had a fantastic vision, albeit unachievably idealistic.

Mission: Develop an electronic medical record system with a backend data warehouse that can serve as a big data repository for research and an expert diagnosis and outcomes engine. 

Wow. It sucked me in. And it recruited people I knew and knew were good and easy to work with - all 4 of us. See what I mean about "idealistic". 

Unfortunately, this case study is a tutorial on what not to do.

Problem #1. Backing. The funding of this development depended largely on the pockets of the founder and a few individual investors. This budget limited the ability to increase staffing levels. Fairly early on an opportunity to move the work under the auspices of a large medical organization was rejected by the owner who did not want to relinquish control. That path might have given us a chance. However, that decision led to the resignation of a key member of the development team and the writing was on the wall.

Problem #2. Technology.  

Both examples took huge technology gambles. One was ill-fated, the other grandly successful. 

In case #1, we chose object oriented development (this was a relatively new thing back then) built with the O-O language, Smalltalk. Smalltalk seems like a strange choice in hindsight, but at the time Smalltalk was the hottest language in the development tool bag. (In my mind it is still the most flexible programming language I have ever worked with - and I have coded in 10 different languages.) It’s a wonderful language for rapid development and support for O-O concepts. Unfortunately, it failed to scale, had poor UI support and the database interfacing capabilities were not great. We toyed with the idea of using an Object Oriented Database, (OODB), another hot topic at the time, but that was a risk too far. So, we were forced to develop internally an object-relational interface layer, both time consuming and a performance bottleneck. And sadly, Smalltalk, the language, did not evolve quickly to address its deficiencies. All in all, our technology choices were, to put it kindly, unfortunate. 

"In the 1990's, all the Smalltalk vendors failed to recognize the significance of the nascent Web and did not adapt their products accordingly. Java came along and mopped up the market." 

Problem #3. Scope. From a product perspective, a major mistake was to try to swallow too much of the elephant. Rather than getting a prototype out quickly with known gaps but with capabilities that demonstrated value, we tried to address a big wish list with a small staff. We ran out of funding and folded up camp.

Problem #4. Customer Engagement. A significant headwind. The main source of requirements and review were individual physicians and staff with medical background - and one large medical organization with “slight” interest. We developers had sparse domain knowledge. At the time, while medical devices were leading edge technology, medical records wallowed in out-dated practices and a we faced organizational reluctance to any change in the status quo. 

Problem #5. Timing. Our development pre-dated the emergence of the internet. At the time, the internet consisted of ARPA newsgroups. I believe if we had launched 3 years later, and focused on a web-based application, our odds of success would have improved multi-fold, at least getting us to a point of being absorbed by an entity with more resources. (see "backing" above). Furthermore, Graphical UIs (GUIs) were in their infancy.  

I now look at Epic Systems with its MyChart and its now10,000 employees and sort of ache inside.

So, that's 2 years of my life in a cement mixer.

After a the crash and burn of startup #1, I spent two fairly calm and stable years working for Honeywell Technology Center, strangely enough utilizing my Smalltalk skills. And out of the blue came a phone call.  I had maintained connections with my former Control Data compadres, and one of them came to me with an opportunity to get in on the ground floor of a startup!

So why leave a solid position with interesting projects (I was a "Principal Research Scientist", la ti da) for another cement mixer? Well, I guess I got the bug again. Time and memory softens the bad experiences and elevates the good, so off I went. The itch to build a something from scratch was irresistible. It’s a rare thing.

Case Study #2

Movin' on up

Late 90's.

Startup #2 had what seemed on the face of it to be rather mundane, if not boring mission. A toolkit!

Mission: Develop an application development platform and toolkit for rapidly building enterprise web-based applications in multiple domains on a UI via the ubiquitous internet browser.  

Surprise. It turns out that this kind of development accelerator has a powerful appeal to internal development projects in large corporations.

Advantage #1. Backing.  This effort had, from the get go, the backing of a major software company with a 50% interest and augmented by some venture (vulture?) capitalist funding. This allowed a fairly rapid staff expansion. The 1st company directory listed 12 employees fit on a credit card size laminated card. Enough people to get a working prototype for customer review within a year.

Advantage #2. Timing. This startup launched just as the .com era was burgeoning in the late 90’s. Our development hit the dot.com window on the nose and generated enthusiasm and funding for the effort. Of course, the 2000 dot.com bubble burst nearly did us in. Four years in and we almost became a statistic. The development environment chosen was Java, this before the first release Java 1.0, essentially a beta version of the language. So this was a gamble. Strong server-side capabilities, interfaces to backend relational DBs coupled with applets that browsers soon supported yielded a modern looking user interface. Java exceeded expectations. In contrast to Smalltalk, updated Java versions released rapidly and targeted to “internet” development. 

Advantage #3. Customer Engagement.  The founder was/is a visionary and marketing genius and leveraged his many contacts from his previous life. So from the very beginning there was strong customer interest in this internet-based application generator concept. Major household name corporations from a variety of  industry sectors sent technical representatives to quarterly multi-day BOCA (Board of Customer Advisors) meetings. At the time, however, they were just interested. There was no commitment to buy.  Each quarter we demonstrated development progress, gathered feedback on that and input on next round priorities. It was a curious dynamic. These regular gatherings created personal relationships and actual friendships between developers and their technical counterparts in these companies who then became advocates for us with their decision makers back home. These trust relationships helped to drive acceptance of our initial product release.

Advantage #4. Adaptability. The product vision was a toolkit for rapidly building web-based enterprise applications. Two years in, our our corporate benefactor was acquired and de facto us as well. The mandate then changed. Use this toolkit yourself to build a specific product to add to the company's product line. And that’s what we did, validating the concept of rapid application development and delivering a product that became and remains the leader in its field. This sadly meant abandoning a number of toolkit prospects outside the new target domain, although a number of them became early adopters of our product.

Advantage #5. Need. This initiative was important to the profitability of the acquiring company. So the development group was important. We were a part of a rare company where revenue comes exclusively from selling software. So, as a software developer, what you did directly affected the success of the company, something not many software people can say.

So, I guess it’s pretty clear which startup succeeded and which failed. Startup #1 failed, a victim of the common causes hitting 90% of all startups. Defying the odds, Startup #2 became extremely successful, delivering a world class product that is still thriving 20 years later.

I am several years retired from that exhilarating ride. An idea coming to life. Like a musical composition produced by many people rallying together to add notes to the song [Sorry. Couldn’t resist a little schmalz]. What makes this happen? Serendipity? Blind luck? Stars aligning? A good deal of hard effort and dedication for sure. And the trust in each other to enable it to happen.

I stayed on perhaps beyond my time because of great people with great character and a special kind of camaraderie, cooperation and professionalism that is rare in the business world. You probably do not realize how unusual this is or even comprehend its possibility. That group of people was the most close-knit group I have ever worked with - perhaps driven by ‘courage under fire’. To this day, I have a real affection for many of those people - and to a lesser degree the product. It’s gotten a bit too large to be lovable.

Team building :-)

Team-agers

Copyright ©  2022  Dave Hoplin

Why Read SciFi?

*See below for links

What one thing would you most like to know about the future? Perhaps when and how you will die? [I think not]. What stock has had the largest gains? [I hope that’s not your “one thing”]. When will the world end? [Too dismal]. What your grandchildrens' lives will be like in 30 years? Interesting. Knowing that might perhaps change current behaviors.

One place to go for a view of the future is SciFi literature. SciFi writers imaginations often become reality. Jules Verne,  H.G. Wells, William Gibson, Neal Stephenson (predictions of space and undersea exploration, the atomic bomb, cyberspace and hackers). Ray Bradbury, Arthur C Clarke, Aldous Huxley, Robert Heinlein, Philip K Dick, Isaac Asimov, George Orwell all seem prescient in hindsight.

And Mark Twain predicting the internet!

Mark Twain. “As soon as the Paris contract released the telelectroscope, it was delivered to public use and was soon connected with the telephonic systems of the whole world. The improved 'limitless-distance' telephone was presently introduced and the daily doings of the globe made visible to everybody, and audibly discussable too, by witnesses separated by any number of leagues."  

Why read SciFi? The best of it is the proverbial canary in the coal mine. And often great, thought-provoking writing.

I have read a fair number of SciFi books. Software people, in particular, seem drawn to SciFi books because they are steeped in technology and often technology that doesn't yet exist. However, my recent reads, all authored in the last 8 years, share a common theme. Apocalypse. A dystopian earth, the result of a combination of worldwide pandemic or the disastrous effects of climate change or some other cataclysm, followed by the desperate efforts to survive on the devastated planet - or an escape to outer space.  

Unfortunately, these apocalypse stories are not fanciful, deluded thinking. Such a future is all too conceivable. The experts have weighed in once more with dire projections. On Feb 28th, 2022 the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change issued a status report - see IPCC Report. The full report is 3500 pages but the BBC synopsis is .. “things are a lot worse than we thought”. [Please read that short BBC article.] We are past the “prevention” stage and into the "mitigate the damage" stage.

But there seems little appetite to take any action. The U.S. climate action proposals in Congress were blocked by 52 senators. There was only a token mention of the climate change “issue” in President Biden’s State of the Union speech on March 1st 2022. Yes, we face crises - Ukraine, COVID, inflation .. but we seem to be unable to act against the slow, relentless, existence threatening climate change. I had hope (faint) that the manufactured frenzy over $1/gal increase in gas price might result in a redoubled call for renewable energy efforts. Instead, it’s “drill, baby, drill”. 

I would love to to know what people 30 years from now will be saying about 2022 us. I suspect it will be harsh. As a thought exercise, just consider the historical view of the lead-ups to WWI/WWII. The anarchy, the saber rattling, the isolationism, the appeasement, the genocide. Why didn't those fools do something to prevent those catastrophes? Fast forward 30 years from today and I fear the same sentiments will be in place.

William Faulkner famously said: “The past is never dead. It’s not even past.”, a statement on how the evils in our history shape our present. 

We are that past for the next generations.

Copyright ©  2022  Dave Hoplin

*Links to recent SciFi reads.

1. Seven Eves - Neal Stephenson
2. Cloud Cuckoo Land - Anthony Doerr
3. Agency - William Gibson
4. Station Eleven - Emily St. John Mandel
5. The Road - Cormac McCarthy

Here's a flowchart for choosing a Sci-Fi book just right for you. (From NPR)