Tuesday, March 31, 2020

Report from the Gulag

I never thought I would say this but sometimes I need a break from reading. A Netflix binge watch needs an interlude.  (Switch to Ted Talks. It will hold you longer.) Actually, I'm missing people. So as we hunker down, I search for distractions.




Get out and walk or bike every day.  It's good for body and soul. Unfortunately, the customary coffee shop stop is in the future. Just keep your distance from me.









Watch your backyard. See turkeys mate.  See squirrels defeat your bird feeder protection schemes (Slinkys on the poles work for about 20 minutes). See predators. See beauty and strangeness. Our backyard is teeming these days.





Dig out your wife's high school annual and read every comment written therein - and be amazed how everyone in the school wrote something to her, mostly of the "friends forever" variety .. but there are a few more interesting. At the same time wonder at your pristine, unadulterated annual.  As you read, notice that some pages of her annual have been cut out and other sections defaced.  I dare you to ask.





Go through all those photos that are stashed under the bed.  Scan those that are treasures and upload them to the cloud. Share the site with your family and friends. Make sure the albums contain some embarrassing stuff.






Order some worms.  Don't laugh. You can improve your yard and keep to environmental principles. Add a couple thousand worms to the turf.










Snack challenge.  Buy 2-weeks worth of snack food and measure how long it lasts.  For me, 1.5 days, then a panic search for the chocolate chips. Beat that.








Learn how to cook.







Call someone you haven't talked to for a good while. Don't react badly when they say, "Who?".  If you skype, put some pants on.




Make some mittens.









Learn Chinese.

Get your Facebook friend count to a manageable 2K.

Put in an "out" building with a vault capable of holding a year's supply of TP.

... and some completely off the wall ideas

Yard work, clean the garage/basement, vacuum, paint,  ... or perhaps look through the condo listings.



How are you'all coping?

Copyright © 2020 Dave Hoplin

Tuesday, March 17, 2020

Social Distancing

I have an enormous advantage over most people in this period of social distancing.  I'm an introvert and I am of Scandinavian heritage so this is my natural state. And I like to write, a solitary process. I am 2 generations removed from my Swedish immigrant family and 3 generations removed from my Norwegian immigrant family. I have often wondered how much of my personality is inherited and what portion is of my own doing.  Whenever I find a flaw, I lean toward the inherited traits.



There is a well deserved Scandinavian stereotype that portrays Nordic stock as stoic to a fault, captured perfectly in the wry story that Ole once heard a joke so funny .. he almost smiled.  There is a Nordic inclination if not a genetic trait, then by strong custom, to adhere to a code of conduct known as the "Law of Jante".  These "laws" were formulated in the satirical novel "A Fugitive Crosses His Tracks" by Aksel Sandemose in 1933 although he adopted these from much older traditions.

There are 10 laws but they all basically state "you're nothing special" and doing things overtly ambitious or out of the ordinary is unworthy and inappropriate. It represents a code of conduct for group behavior.

The crux of the rules are:

  1. Common good over the individual. Don't be greedy or self centered. We are all in this together
  2. Humility. You are not more important than anyone else. You should probably refuse that $1M executive bonus.
  3. Fit in. Don't be flashy. Drive a Volvo
  4. Ambition will not make you happy.  Be content and consider friends and family first. In your life, consider what you want your epitaph to read.
  5. Society should be classless.  Everyone counts. Let's look out for each other.





Be well my friends.

Copyright © 2020 Dave Hoplin

Saturday, March 14, 2020

Updated Lowry Historical Photos

FYI - I have added quite a few additional of photos to the "Photographic History of the Village of Lowry".  The added photos are at the bottom.

Always looking for more.

dgh

Teaser:  My grandmother is in this WCTU photo. If you can identify others, please let me know.




Tuesday, March 10, 2020

The Zuckerberg Factor

Facebook.  You might have heard about it, the "move fast and break things, "bring the world closer together" folks. Home for a gagillion cat videos, cute baby pix, political rants, braggadocio, Khalil Gibran quotes, birthday wishes, bike ride photos, fake accounts, hoaxes - and ads and ads and more ads.

Facebook knows everything about you ... because you've told them. You've told them explicitly on your profile page, you've told them implicitly through your posts, your likes, your browsing history, your purchases online.  The thing is .. this data gets leveraged for all kinds of purposes.  Go to Amazon and search for that a paper shredder (you know, to protect your privacy) and the next time you bring up Facebook, there's an ad for paper shredders. Facebook automatically acquires data from Amazon, Google, Bing and on and on.  Over 4 petabytes (see chart below) of data get uploaded to Facebook daily.

Every day:
  • 500 million tweets are sent (some not from Washington)
  • 65 billion WhatsApp messages
  • 294 billion emails
  • 5 billion searches
  • 4 terabytes of data from each connected car

Think of a byte as 1 character
This is the world of "Big Data" and data analytics. Everything you do, everywhere you go, everything you buy gets tracked.  "IBM estimates that every day 2.5 quintillion bytes of data are created – so much that 90% of the data in the world today has been created in the last two years." It is mind-boggling. By 2025 the estimate is 463 exabytes (see chart) of data will be created each day.


So what?  The problem is that with all this information available, it and you can be manipulated and sad to say not always is for altruistic purposes. Most retailers have robust data analytics capabilities, utilizing their customer data, sales data, etc.  How do you suppose it is that Target could know your wife is pregnant before you, her husband?  Data analytics.

How is it that small market baseball like Oakland can be competitive against the $250 million Yankee payroll.  Data analytics. Oakland finds players which other teams overlook or undervalue.

Big data / data analytics have beneficial, perhaps mostly beneficial intent.
  • Medical: evaluate symptoms and identify many diseases at the early stages
  • Ecommerce: evaluate customers behavior and suggests similar products. 
  • Disaster Management: identify the potential disasters by evaluating temperature, water level, wind pressure, and other related factors.
  • Security: detect fraudulent activities / identify the possible threatening situations 
  • Agriculture: take data from the past years and can suggest the pesticides that work best under certain conditions.
  • ...
The capabilities have become so sophisticated it is hard to know what to believe, so generally people retreat into their clans and accept everything that fits and ignore anything that challenges that world view. 

But there is also a large set of dubious data analyses applications. One of the most enthusiastic adopters of big data & analytics is political campaigns, leveraging Facebook's "micro-targeting" capability. The Trump campaign recognized the power of The Zuckerberg Factor early on, purchasing 6 million FB adds in the run-up to the 2016 election. It is likely you saw but a few of them. The targeting is so sophisticated that ads can go to, for example, "suburban hockey moms in Buffalo". Or more disturbing, racists in Toledo, with Facebook inferring from peoples posts and comments, etc. who might fit that profile. Which Catholics in Wisconsin have attended Mass 3 times in the past 3 months?  Hmm, why do you ask? Doesn't matter. Facebook really has no rules when it comes to political advertising. Only rarely would they reject a political ad. They would not allow advertising a false election date, but that's about it. Under duress, they recently tagged an altered video as "partially false".  It's just fine for politicians to lie on Facebook. There is no fact-checking.

And there are a wealth of FB capabilities you probably are unaware of. For example, Facebook can produce "look-alike lists". You provide a custom list of people and minimal demographics (FB can easily fill in the holes) and FB will give you another list of people who match that profile. So - provide a list of 250,000 supporters and FB will give you another list of 250,000 potential supporters.

The new language of these political machinations is ominous (if you really want to nerd-out, links are provided into this new world of analytics arcana)
  • geofencing - location tracking. Put a fence around the target area.
  • dark patterns - deceptive user interaction design to get you to reveal stuff

Privacy ... hmm...

Copyright © 2020 Dave Hoplin


Monday, March 2, 2020

The Giving Tree

Lent.  Christians are now in this 40 day period in the church year leading up to Easter. For Christians, Lent is a time to prepare for Easter, to deepen one's spiritual life through prayer, scripture reading, fasting and alms giving, a time for self-examination and introspection.  What kind of a person am I and what are the impediments that keep me from being better?  For many Americans, the hard to admit answer is money. Try Mark Chapter 10 on for size.

The little book, The Giving Tree by Shel Silverstein, is a life lesson in sacrifice for others couched as a children's book. It's a story of a boy - young man - old man and "the giving tree".  All through the man's life, the tree gives and gives and the boy takes and takes until in old age the boy realizes his self centeredness. Yet the tree continues to give, finally, its stump as a place to rest.  A timely Lenten lesson.



Last year I posted "Don't Stop Giving", which urged continued charitable giving despite the changes in the federal tax laws. But .. sad to say, charitable giving did drop significantly in 2018.  I believe that most people do not give for the tax break, but clearly there is a percentage that does exactly that.

The tax laws pushes many people who formerly itemized deductions into a standard deduction filing.  Roughly 25 million fewer tax payers itemized in 2018. That of course does not mean they are not donating to charity but rather they are doing so without a tax benefit and the data shows the giving amounts were reduced.

The 2017 tax law disincentives charitable giving. "Trickle down" tax policies, where the rich are rewarded with the expectation that this windfall will be passed along the those less fortunate is a trope that has been offered and accepted over and over again with the same results.  The truth is, "thems whats gots keeps."  When John D. Rockefeller was asked: "How much is enough?" His response was: "Just a little bit more". The camel through the eye of a needle comes to mind.  Before you dismiss this attitude as the sole purview of the super wealthy, bear in mind that in the eyes of the rest of the world, compared to themselves, most Americans are rightly in the Rockefeller category.

Roughly 70% of charitable giving comes from individuals. In 2018, gifts between $250 & $999 fell by 4% and gifts under $250 fell more than that. The total number of givers also declined. 

We were also assured that the tax windfall to large corporations, reducing corporate tax rates from 35% to 21%, would be passed along to employees. The claim was the new tax structure would yield $4k-$9k individual wage increases and the rich would not benefit at all. Instead, the most frequent corporate action has been massive executive bonuses and stock buybacks, ($1T[rillion] in 2018. This exceeds the annual total of R&D spending for US corporations for the year.) The point of stock buybacks is to drive up the stock price, which disproportionately benefits the stock-option holding executives and wealthy stock holders.  On the other hand, wage increases logged in at 2.7% in the first two years of the Trump administration compared with 5.8% in the prior two years.  The bottom of the wage pyramid fared even worse, a 0.4% increase (~$56).

But in my mind, the most outrageous outcome of this tax law is the impact on our children and grandchildren - the out of control deficit, which suddenly seems not to matter.  However, future taxpayers will face a deficit increasing by $1.9T over the next 10 years. So much for fiscal conservatism. And now we are told, corporations need yet another tax cut in 2020.

So, to we who have so much I offer a plea to give and give generously. To your church or a charity(s) that serves those in need.

Food shelves especially need replenishing after the holiday seasons.  Food insecurity impacts 40 million Americans, 11 million children.     https://www.feedingamerica.org/hunger-in-america/facts

"We who have much should be willing to share. It is not (only) for the poor, but for ourselves that we might become less narrow, less frightened, less lonely, less self-centered."     David Foster Wallace

There are hundreds of Bible verses on our obligations to the poor, the other.  If you were to be a Biblical issue based voter, you would be well to focus on serving the poor.


Copyright © 2020 Dave Hoplin

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/the-tax-bill-is-one-year-old-here-are-the-winners-and-losers/