CPI Blues

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) tracks the month to month change in the price of a basket of goods, 80,000 items, everything from apples to unleaded gasoline to men's underwear, funerals, from coffee to cadillacs. Each month BLS issues a Consumer Price Index report. Until lately. The report for the past 2 months has been withheld due to 'staff shortages' and the ‘government shutdown’. But as you must realize, this is all about controlling the optics. Apparently, we, the manipulated, don't deserve the truth and this government prefers to just tell us what to think. Yet another instance in a long line of gaslighting America.

So it's a huge mystery whether the CPI is going up or down. Not. Anyone who does their own grocery shopping, buys a Big Mac, pays property taxes or rent realizes which direction the CPI points.

It turns out I don't actually need the CPI to know which way the scales are tilting. I have my own personal CPI. This is a bit OCD but I track spending in a financial app on my Mac. It is quite easy to capture and categorize expenses. Not quite as easy as back in the days when every payment was by check. Now, I rarely write I check, it’s all auto-pay and credit card. The process does require decompiling the Visa bill and remembering what was in the Costco cart, so there's an ε on precision, but it's good enough to show trends. Once captured, the app aggregates and reports year-to-year comparisons by category.

So here's some 2024-2025 year-over-year statistical comparisons for one household, a fairly typical old urban couple.

I think you can probably make conclusions without my assistance. Note: The leap in medical expense is accurate but a bit inflated as our pill trays become ever more colorful. 

A trip to the grocery in 2025 was significantly more expensive than 2024. We dine out less frequently and yet have spent more. US cattle inventory is the lowest since the 1950's so those $18 hamburgers plus the tab with the 25% tip suggestion induce sticker-shock indigestion. An 8 oz filet at a well-known steakhouse goes for $60, ribeye for $85, so we eat less beef, rationalizing it's a healthier. So, alas, we must assume partial blame for all those restaurants shuttering.

This is a first-world problem but my favorite Cadbury chocolate bar has gone from $2.79 to $4.29. I fear I may be forced to Twix bars. Chocolate, as you know, is one of the 5 main food groups. A bag of Sun Chips is now $22/lb.  A box of Cheerios is $6. A can of Folgers is $16. The Christmas ham was $80. 

A diet of tea and rice cakes holds no appeal.

This report, of course, is in no way scientific. A sample size of one is not representative and a one-dimensional Bell Curve does not illuminate. 

So - not statistically significant - except to me.

Copyright © 2025  Dave Hoplin